


RISK, PROBABILITY, MEASURE 


Q1 
Smiffy has left the DPM and joined NASA. Well isn`t
that our man to a T ?
He is sent to Metabelis 6 where, as we know, they have eliminated all risks
apart from three, namely those represented symbolically by
(tau) (alpha) and (kappa).
The table shows the number of deaths per year (averaged over the last decade)
associated with ,
and
source of risk 
No. of deaths per year (averaged over
the last decade) 

1026 

106 

e, where e=1/n as n 

A1 
Which is the major source of risk ? answer = 




Q2 
During a lull at the DPM some of the boyos are watching Channel 4 racing,
and what of our man Smiffy and his beamish boys ?
That`s no proper mans passtime; Smiffy and one of his BBs decide to have
a game of Russian roulette.
One beamish boy takes his empty sixshooter and slips in one slug
....
Smiffy goes first (age before beauty !), the players take turns until
one player kills himself ...

A2 
What is the probability that Smiffy kills himself ? answer = 6/11 


Q2a 
Suppose pr(c) = 1/10 (it isnt` beacuse I want you to tell me the answer), this means that the probability that BB kills himself (pr(b) is 9/10.

A2a 
Does this mean after the game of Russian roulette that Smiffy is 1/10th dead and BB is 9/10th dead ? ... please advise 




Q3 
One of the beamish boys has left the DPM and become a jockey. He is taking part in 3 races and, yes, there in the crowd is our man Smiffy with his cheese n onion crisps and pint of Old Stinko`s Ferret Ale. The probability that our beamish boy jockey wins any given race is 1/4.

A3 
What is the probability that the jockey wins the 3rd race, given that he wins at least 2 races ?  email me your answer 



